Analysis: Sudan conflict
Numerous people have already died and thousands have been hurt as a result of armed conflicts in Sudan between the army and the potent paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (FAR).
Key Points
The capital city of Khartoum is where most of the WAR—in which even aircraft is involved—takes place, but it has already extended to other parts of the nation, raising the possibility of a nationwide conflict. International organizations, as well as regional and global powers, as well as bordering governments, have demanded an end to hostilities.
Sudan is continuously moving toward democracy.
history Omar al-Bashirar al-Bashir has left his mark on Sudan during the past three decades. Al Bashir formed an Islamist-based regime following a coup in 1989. Sudan experienced worldwide isolation as a result of its reputation as a supporter of terrorism. The Army also rose to prominence at that time, taking an interest in businesses and various economic areas.
Breakout against Al Bashir Due to a crisis brought on by rising inflation and shortages of bread and other essential goods in December 2018, locals revolted. The movement persisted despite the regime’s repressive measures, which cost dozens of deaths.
Al Bashir was finally ousted by the Army in April 2019, who promised to hand over control in two years.a settlement that saw the military share power with civilians in the Sovereign Council and direct the nation toward elections at the end of 2023 was achieved in August 2019.
However, due to two circumstances, tensions between the military and people grew over time.
First of all, the military was hostile to cooperating with the International Criminal Court in order to prosecute Al Bashir for war crimes committed during the fighting in the Darfur region between 2003 and 2008. Second, citizens demanded an explanation for the killings of the pro-democracy demonstrators.Finally, the military staged a coup in October 2021, leading to the dissolution of the interim administration. Abdala Hamdok, the prime minister, was taken into custody.Street demonstrations were held in January of last year to press the military to hand up power to civilians.
A new political accord for a second transition is presently being negotiated between the military and civilians. Due to the tensions and rivalries between the Army and the FAR, the signing of this agreement was delayed twice in April, and it is now in jeopardy.
From allies to enemies, who are up against the Army and paramilitaries?
The Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary organization known as the Rapid Support Forces (FAR) are the combatants.Approximately 205,000 soldiers can be mobilized by the military, according to estimates from the Global Firepower website.
Abdelfatah al Burhan, Chairman of the Sovereign Council, is in charge of the armed forces. Al Burham, who is thought to be the most moderate of the generals, formerly had support from the civil opposition to lead the Council, despite the fact that he too has been accused for deploying excessive force.
Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, alias Hemedti, the former vice-president of the Sovereign Council and current leader of the FAR, which some believe to have 100,000 members, was previously the vice-president of the Sovereign Council.
The Janjaweed rebel groups, which were deployed by the Al Bashir regime to repress Darfur from 2003 to 2008 and were accused of carrying out horrific executions and rapes, gave rise to the FAR.
militia of According to Reuters, the dictatorship consolidated its control and financial interests in infrastructure, ranches, and gold mining during the years that Hemedti was employed.
Despite the Army’s concerns, Al Bashir authorized the militia as a paramilitary organization in 2017.
The FAR took part in both the coups that removed Al Bashir and the coup of 2021, despite the fact that Hemedti has recently spoken out in favor of a switch to civilian administration.
The conflict worries the third main player in Sudanese politics, civil organizations whose objective is to hold elections and have the nation resemble a democracy.
The belligerents have been encouraged to “stop military confrontations immediately and return to the negotiating table,” but the call has so far gone unanswered by the opposition bloc Forces for Freedom and Change (FLyC).
The FLYC accuses Al Bashir’s “remnants of the extinct regime” of lighting the fuse of the clashes in order to “reap its fruits.”Why are they positioned side by side? fight for the distribution of power and advantages
The merger of the FAR into the Army is being discussed as part of the transition to a civilian government. The sides disagree on the how and when, though.
“The two armies, the regular one and the FAR, have many resources and privileges, and the integration of the paramilitaries aroused the fear of losing those privileges,” a Spanish Comboni missionary living in Khartoum, Jorge Naranjo, told the 24 Hours Channel of TVE.
When the Army complained that FAR units had been dispatched to Khartoum without their permission last Thursday, April 13, tensions between the two sets of uniformed officers reached their peak. He said that some of his sites had been attacked by the paramilitaries the following day.
On Saturday, the Army claims that the FAR attacked Al Burhan’s home and the Army’s general headquarters, where a meeting to ease tension was scheduled. This marked the beginning of open conflict.
The FAR was subsequently designated a rebel force by the Sovereign Council, and its dissolution was mandated.
Sudan in relation to other countries
The US, China, Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UN, the EU, and the African Union are among the nations and international organizations that have demanded an immediate end to hostilities. countries At the request of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the Arab League convened an urgent conference because it was worried that an uprising in Sudan could destabilize the region. South Sudan and Egypt, which are neighbors, have volunteered to mediate.
However, the Sudanese government has disapproved of any “international interference.
“Sudan is strategically significant in Africa due to its geographic location and natural resources. With many neighbors, access to the Red Sea, and the Horn of Africa, its territory takes up a substantial chunk of the continent’s center.
The country produces oil, agricultural products, and gold, which is its principal export, in the eastern region, which also disposes of the water from the Nile.
The internal politics of the nation have attracted the notice of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. For its part, Russia wants to strengthen a presence in Sudan. The construction of a naval facility in Port Sudan was agreed upon in principle by the Sudanese military and Moscow in February of last year.
believe tank The Wagner mercenary organization, which is at now engaged in combat in Ukraine, has reportedly been operating in Sudan since 2017.
