A recent study by researchers from Stanford University and Colorado State University suggests that the Earth is on track to warm by two degrees Celsius by 2050, even in a low-emission scenario. The findings, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on January 30, 2023, challenge projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which anticipated a 2°C increase by 2050 only under high-emission scenarios.
As of now, the planet has experienced a 1.1°C rise in temperature compared to the average between 1850 and 1900. The Paris Agreement aims to limit this increase to below 2°C, with efforts to cap it at 1.5°C. However, the study’s predictions indicate a significant likelihood of failing to meet the Paris Agreement goals.
The researchers utilized artificial neural networks (ANN), a form of artificial intelligence, to analyze climate model simulations and historical temperature observations. Their analysis revealed that the world is expected to reach the critical 1.5°C threshold between 2033 and 2035. This aligns with earlier estimates from the IPCC, which suggested that the 1.5°C threshold could be reached by the 2030s across all emission scenarios.
Limiting the temperature rise to 1.5°C can have substantial benefits, including a reduction of approximately 420 million people frequently exposed to extreme heatwaves and decreased risks associated with drought and water availability. Despite these advantages, the study indicates that the likelihood of crossing the 1.5°C threshold has increased.
The predictions for reaching 2°C indicate different timelines based on emission scenarios: by 2050 under high-emission, 2049 under intermediate, and 2054 under low-emission scenarios. This contrasts with IPCC estimates that consider the high-emission scenario as the only one likely to reach 2°C by the mid-21st century.
The study emphasizes the potential failure to achieve the Paris Agreement goal even with substantial greenhouse gas mitigation. The researchers call attention to the urgency of addressing climate change and reevaluating strategies to ensure a sustainable future.
