December 10 – Happy Birthday, Johannes Stöffler

nPostednon December 10, 2014

nEvennthough some “modern” scientific endeavors emerged over and overnagain around the world, even in ancient times (Archimedes, fornexample, looked for empirical evidence from experimentation, way backnin the Ancient Greek civilization), a truly “modern” scientificnviewpoint took centuries of cumulative effort and collaboration amongnAsian, African, and European civilizations to emerge. Back in thenearly days of the European Renaissance, alongside the blossoming ofnart came a flowering of science – partly because of Europeans’ncontact with Arab and Chinese peoples who were more advanced in manynways.

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nButnthe even the most esteemed scientists of that time were still atnleast partly entangled in pre-scientific thought. Superstition.nReligious beliefs that claimed that humanity was central to thencosmos. Logical fallacies about causation.

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nJohannesnStöffler, born on this date inn1452, in what is now Germany, is a great example of a Renaissance-eranscientist. He was a mathematician, astronomer, professor, and makernof astronomical instruments. He was also an astrologer and a priest.nThese days, you do not meet too many scientist / astrologer /npriests! But back then it wasn’t so very uncommon…

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nDuringnhis life, Stöffler made plenty of contributions: he made celestialnglobes and astronomical clocks, he wrote an almanac, he wrote a booknabout how to make and use an astrolabe (a device that helps locatenand predict positions of the moon and planets), and he creatednastronomical tables. In 1518 Stöffler made a proposal for calendarnreform – and his proposal ended up being the basis for thenGregorian calendar, which was introduced more than half a centurynlater! This is the calendar used almost everywhere in the worldntoday.

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nButnhe believed that astrological horoscopes could predict personalitynand events, and he also predicted an enormous flood, or deluge, wouldncover the entire world. He made the flood prediction in 1499, when henwas 47 years old – a pretty good age to achieve, back then. Thenpredicted date of the flood was February 20, 1524 (that’s prettynspecific!) – 25 years after he made the prediction. I wonder if henkinda sorta thought he would be dead by then?

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nWhennFebruary 20, 1524, finally rolled around, and the worldwide delugendidn’t occur, Stöffler was about still alive and 71 years old. Incouldn’t find any reports of what he said about his failednprediction. Perhaps a relieved “phew”? (Stöffler finally died ofnplague at age 78.)

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nBacknin the 15^thnand 16^thnCenturies, when Stöffler was an astronomer and an astrologer, thentwo were pretty entangled. In a way, astrology was the beginning ofnastronomy. But today we have a sharp line between the science ofnastronomy and the pseudoscience (in other words, the NOT-science) ofnastrology:

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nAstronomynis the science of the universe and its contents, outside of thenEarth’s atmosphere. Astronomers examine positions, motions, andnproperties of planets, moons, stars, and other “celestial objects.”

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nAstrologynis a pseudoscience. It claims to study how the positions, motions,nand properties of celestial objects affect people and events onnEarth.

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nAstronomynis always evolving, honing its description of the universe based onnthe latest observations – made with better telescopes andnadditional instruments, some of them above our disruptive atmosphere,nand some even on spaceships far from Earth.

See also July 31, 2011 - La Hae Hawaii

Astrologynclings to a zodiac and birth signs created thousands of years ago,nwhen the stars were literally in different positions in the skyn(because the Earth wobbles on its axis, with the axis moving onendegree every 72 years). IF planets and stars really did influencenpeople at the moment that they were born, as astrology claims,nastrologers should update the birth signs assigned to each birthdate.nBut they don’t – even when the outdated birth signs were pointednout to them. Tradition is more important than observed fact.

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Astronomersnmake predictions, generally very precise predictions such as “thensun will be eclipsed by the moon at this exact location at this exactntime,” or “the Big Bang should still be detectable as a microwavenbackground ‘hum’ detectable in all directions, with a spectrum thatnmatches that of a black body.” When a particular prediction isnfulfilled, the theory behind the prediction is maintained. When anparticular prediction is proven false, the theory is ditched. Thisnmakes the science falsifiable – astronomers will update theirnunderstanding of the cosmos when new evidence comes to light, andnthey will let go of ideas that prove to be incorrect.

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Astrologersnalso make predictions. However, they tend to be very general andn“mooshy,” almost guaranteed to come true. For example, mynhoroscope for the week says that this week is a social time for me –nthat I might see an increase in events and parties. This predictionncame true – I already went to a festive luncheon this week, andnanother party looms at the end of the week. On the other hand, thisnsort of prediction is probably true of most Americans in December –nit’s called Christmas and other winter holidays! I also read thenprediction that I may be taking two long or short trips, OR I mayndecide to enter a college or university, OR I may decide to marketnsomething, perhaps on the internet, OR I may decide to take newnclasses to further my career. With all those “ors” and “mays,”nyou’d think this so-called prediction couldn’t miss – but actuallynI didn’t do, sign up for, or decide to do any of thatnstuff!

See also The Rockford Haunting

Sometimes astrologers make really specific predictions.nRemember how surprised I was that our birthday boy, Stöffler,npredicted the exact day and month of the worldwide flood – from 25nyears out! However, whether the predictions are general or specific,nwhen the predictions fail, astrology does not change any of itsnprocedures for making future predictions. The lack of change based onnevidence – even based on failed predictions – is the biggestnreason that astrology is a pseudoscience – basically, either anfraud or a fun pastime with no truth behind it – rather than anuseful science.

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nAstronomersnall over the world can check each others’ work and discover the samensights and measurements. Their findings can be replicated – andntherefore backed up – by others. There is no such thing as “Chinesenastronomy” – Chinese people who are astronomers study and work inn“astronomy,” just as American and Persian and English and everynother nationality of astronomers.

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nAstrologersnaround the world use different zodiacs and procedures to makenpredictions, and therefore come with different “readings” andnpredictions. There is such a thing as Chinese astrology and Persiannastrology and Western astrology. And they’re all different.

nAlsonon this date: