The asteroid known as 99942 Apophis, often referred to as the “God of Chaos,” has recently sparked renewed concern among astronomers regarding its potential collision course with Earth.
Initially discovered in 2004, Apophis was once thought to pose a significant threat, with a 2.7% chance of impacting our planet in 2029. However, subsequent observations led experts to dismiss the risk for both the 2029 and 2036 dates.
Originally, Apophis was expected to make a close pass on April 13, 2029, at a distance of just 18,300 miles from Earth. This proximity raised alarms, but the consensus was that the asteroid would safely glide by. Yet, a new analysis by Canadian space expert Paul Wiegert has introduced a twist to the narrative. He suggests that if Apophis were to collide with a small object in space, it could alter its trajectory and potentially set it on a collision course with Earth.
Wiegert explains that the odds of such an event occurring are extremely low. Specifically, he estimates that the probability of an unseen small asteroid deflecting Apophis enough to redirect it toward Earth is about 1 in 200 million. To put it in simpler terms, the chances of this happening are a mere 5%, which translates to catastrophic odds of less than one in two billion.
For those unfamiliar with the technical jargon, Google Gemini can help clarify the complex terms involved. The asteroid’s distance (“d”) must be at least 3.4 meters, and any speed alteration (“v”) would require a nudge exceeding 500 meters per second to change Apophis’ flight path.
Adding to the concern, Wiegert noted that Apophis has been largely unmonitored by telescopes since May 2021 and will remain so until 2027. This lack of observation is due to the asteroid’s position relative to Earth and the Sun, which places it in the daytime sky, making it difficult for astronomers to track.
While the likelihood of Apophis colliding with Earth remains exceedingly low, the uncertainty surrounding its trajectory highlights the importance of continued monitoring and research. As we advance our understanding of near-Earth objects, the need for vigilance in tracking these celestial bodies becomes ever more critical. For now, the world can breathe a sigh of relief, but the story of Apophis serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of space.
