September 29 – Happy Birthday, Joseph Banks Rhine

nPostednon September 29, 2016

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n“J.B.nRhine Is an Ass.”

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nThatnwas the name of a newspaper article published by famous Sherlock Holmesnauthor, Arthur Conan Doyle, about today’s birthday boy, Joseph BanksnRhine.

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nWhyndid Doyle think so poorly of Rhine?

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nSirnArthur Conan Doyle was great at creating a complex fictionalndetective character who remains popular to this day. Doyle was reallyngood at crafting detective stories that have kept generations of readersninterested. But he wasn’t really good at everything.

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A 10-year-old and a 16-year-old were able
to fool Sir Arthur Conan Doyle with their
so-called photographs of fairies. He put
his reputation on the line by writing multiple
booklet attesting to the “fact” that the fairy
photos were real.

They weren’t.

nOnenof the big not-so-good things about Doyle was his uncritical attitudenabout spiritualism, communicating with the death, mediums and seancesnand all the rest of it. Doyle was very enthusiastic about all of thatnstuff. So enthusiastic that he became a True Believer, and he wasn’tnable to think clearly about the topic. If people said that anparticular séance was full of trickery, Doyle pushed away thenevidence. If someone said that a particular medium was a fraud, Doylenignored the report. n

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This photo shows Crandon supposedly
exuding “ectoplasm” from her nose.

Later studies have shown that Rhine
was correct – Crandon was an
illusionist pretending that her illusions
were real. And that makes her
a fraud!

nJ.B. Rhine had attended a séance put on bynmedium Mina Crandon. He claimed that he observed Crandon kicking anmegaphone to give the impression it was levitating (rising up throughnthe power of an invisible spirit), using luminous objects to represent otherworldly spirits, and doing other tricks. Rhine wrotenan article exposing Crandon’s tricks, and Doyle attacked him in response.

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nThenweird thing is that Rhine was a bit of a believer, too. At least he wanted to be.

nRhine hadnstudied to be a scientist – a plant scientist, or botanist, to benexact. While at the university where he was earning his Master’s andnPhD, Rhine heard a lecture given by none other than Arthur ConannDoyle. In the lecture, Doyle said that there was scientific proofnthat mediums really were communicating with the dead. (That’snincorrect, by the way.) And the idea fascinated Rhine and his wife sonmuch that Rhine soon left botany for a new “science,”nparapsychology.

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nRhinenis pretty famous for his research on ESP, or extra-sensorynperception. Could people know what is on a hidden card, or whatnanother person is thinking, or what is going to happen soon –nthrough some previously unknown ability? n

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nWithnhis scientific training, Rhine knew that he should set up a properlyncontrolled experiment with which he could test these possible powersnof the mind. And, from what I can tell by reading about Rhine and hisnwork, I think he tried to set up a proper experiment. I think that hendidn’t want to fool himself like he probably realized Doyle wasnfooling himself about mediums and seances. n

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nButnhe did fool himself, unfortunately.

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nWorkingnat Duke University, NC, Rhine tested Duke undergraduate students fornESP using Zener cards. The experimenter picks up a card in a shuffledndeck of 25 cards, observes which of the five symbols is on the card,nand records the guess of the student being tested. n

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nMostnstudents guessed right about as many times as chance predicts –nabout 20% of the time. But some students did way better.

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nAtntimes, at least.

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nRhinenthought that his amazing undergrads had ESP (and I do think that henwas fooling himself, not trying to trick people), but here are somenof the problems with this experiment:

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nSomen people are really good at making predictions because they haven excellent memories about which cards have already been played. Theren are five cards with each symbol, and the experimenter just wentn straight through the shuffled deck; certainly later “guesses”n had a much better chance of being correct for test-takers with goodn memories.
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nStudiesn have shown that poor shuffling techniques make it much easier ton predict cards, and Rhine’s first experiments were done withn experimenters shuffling cards by hand.
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nAnothern way of making a correct prediction is to note slight stains andn smudges and bends and other imperfections in the cards. Some of then undergrads used the cards multiple times for identical tests; it’sn possible that they got to know (consciously or unconsciously) then back-sides of the cards. In the earliest tests, it was actuallyn possible to see through the cards in some lighting conditions!
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nIt’sn possible that the experimenter who observed the cards had a “tell”n – some difference in how he held or looked at the cards, how hen sounded, depending on the card. Much more likely is that test takersn might have been able to see at least a bit of the cards reflected inn the experimenters’ glasses or even their corneas. Note that each ofn the symbols is a different color.
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nSomen of the “exceptional subjects” – the undergrads who seemed ton guess the cards at a better-than-chance rate – were actuallyn allowed to handle the cards, shuffle and cut the cards, themselves.n We’ve all seen magicians who are able to manipulate decks of cardsn in what seem like remarkable ways – so any handling by thosen taking the tests throws the data from the tests into question.
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nChancen evens out to 20% – but only after a LOT of random trials.n Certainly there can be what seems to be remarkable runs of luck, ofn particular dice throws, say, or high-scoring poker hands – but ifn you keep throwing dice or dealing poker hands, you will eventuallyn see the magical-seeming run flattening out.

Rhine’sn “exceptional” under-grads sometimes seemed to guessn better-than-chance, sometimes seemed to guess worse-than-chance, andn of course sometimes seemed to guess at the chance rate of 20%.n Unfortunately, investigation of Rhine’s work showed that he tendedn to think that the positive results showed ESP, and that the negativen or neutral results could be explained by the subject being tired orn bored or even angry. n

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Asnothers studied Rhine’s results and complained about things likenreflections, see-through cards, or other ways in which test takersncould improve their guesses, Rhine kept trying to devise betternexperiments that wouldn’t allow “sensory leakage” or cheating.nBut then he was unable to find any high-scoring subjects.

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nAfternthe eventual lack of success using the Zener cards, parapsychologistsnno longer use card-guessing studies.

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nLikenI said before, I think that Rhine meant well, and his work withnmedium Crandon demonstrates his lack of desire to willfully cheat innorder to believe in amazing ideas. However, I think he let down hisnown scientific training in the way he reported his results. He didn’tndesign his experiments well, nor did he describe his experimentalnmethods with enough clarity, he used math in a fudgy way instead ofnas a tool to make the testing more rigorous, and worst of all, he wasnselective in his reporting with the result that he exaggerated hisnsuccesses and explained away his failures.

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nPhysicistnRichard Feynman once warned: